Growth and Trend Analysis of Area, Production, and Yield of Major Cereals

Abstract

Farmers in Bhutan have developed and produced varieties of food crops well-adapted to microclimatic niches over centuries. Farmers had been cultivating at least nine food crops known as Dru-Na-Gu. However, only rice, maize, wheat, barley, buckwheat, and millets are commonly grown by farmers as staple food crops, with the remaining Dru-Na-Gu losing their popularity. Bhutanese farmers are predominantly small-scale, marginal, and reliant on integrated subsistence agriculture systems, and farming is still labor-intensive and deeply ingrained in tradition. As much of the agriculture is non-commercial subsistence agriculture, technological backwardness still prevails. Despite the effort to overcome technological backwardness with research and development initiatives such as the release of well-adapted, improved food crop varieties and management practices, little attention is paid to the overall trends and growth rates in spite of their utility in crop forecasts and planning. This study examined the trend and growth rates for 60 years (1961-2020) of time series data on the area, production, and yield of Dru-Na-Gu. Semi-log trend function was used to ascertain the trend and growth rates of the area, production, and yield. Although increasing agricultural production helped to lessen rural poverty, there was a significant deceleration in productivity and area under major cereals cultivation over the study period. However, there was a slightly accelerated growth in the yield of major cereals, which could be due to the introduction of improved varieties. Considering the significant deceleration of area and productivity of major cereals as opposed to the burgeoning import of cereals or cereal-based products, intensifying cereal production and regulating infrastructure development on agricultural land can conserve land needed to achieve food self-sufficiency.